UK Illegal Gambling Advertising Could Outspend Licensed Brands by 2028

(AsiaGameHub) –   WARC has provided new data to support a trend that UK gambling companies have been highlighting for months. Recent research indicates that unlicensed operators are on course to match and then surpass regulated brands in advertising expenditure, with this shift now anticipated by 2028.

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Key Takeaways

• WARC projects that unlicensed gambling ad spend will increase from £844.7 million in 2025-2026 to over £1 billion by 2028.
• Advertising spend by regulated operators is forecast to decrease to £1.022 billion in 2026-2027.
• Sponsorship may see this crossover occur sooner, with unlicensed brands expected to capture more than half of that market in 2026-2027.

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Advertising Budgets for the Black Market in UK Gambling Continue to Grow

By 2028, it is possible that black market gambling brands will be allocating more to UK advertising than licensed operators. This is the primary conclusion from WARC research released on April 21, the day before a parliamentary debate where MPs are scheduled to discuss gambling advertising and the impact of regulation on the market.

The forecast suggests a rapid increase for unlicensed operators. WARC anticipates their advertising expenditure to rise from £844.7 million in 2025-2026 to £934.2 million in 2026-2027, and then exceed £1 billion by 2028. Conversely, licensed operators are expected to see their budgets decline. WARC forecasts a 9.2% decrease in their spending for 2025-2026, followed by a further 2.6% drop to £1.022 billion in 2026-2027.

WARC has characterized the market as divided. In their statement, the organization noted:

“While overall advertising spend in the UK’s gambling sector is projected to reach £1.9 billion this year, WARC research reveals a two-tiered market where nearly all growth is now being driven by unlicensed companies. These operators, largely based abroad, are investing increasingly larger sums to reach UK consumers online through search and social media platforms.”

This division is even more apparent in sponsorship. WARC predicts that unlicensed operators will secure over half of the gambling sponsorship expenditure as early as 2026-2027. Total sponsorship investment has grown from £158 million in 2019-2020 to an estimated £260 million in 2026-2027, while the share held by regulated firms peaked in 2021-2022 and has been declining since.

The Betting and Gaming Council (BGC) utilized the report to express concerns that licensed firms are losing consumer engagement. Chief executive Grainne Hurst described the findings as a critical juncture and stated that the trend should be a cause for concern among lawmakers. She commented:

“The crucial issue is whether the advertising originates from regulated operators, who adhere to stringent standards, or from the detrimental, illegal black market, which operates entirely outside of established rules.”

Hurst also contended that further restrictions on licensed operators would inadvertently benefit illegal brands:

“Targeting licensed operators when their advertising expenditure is already decreasing will not reduce overall advertising; it will merely strengthen the harmful illegal black market, which is aggressively pursuing UK customers. The government must take more decisive and swift action to curb the black market before it is too late.”

Licensed firms have been facing mounting pressure from various sources. The Remote Gaming Duty increased from 21% to 40% on April 1. The Remote Betting Duty is also set to rise from 15% to 25% starting in April 2027. In November 2025, the Office for Budget Responsibility estimated that these tax changes would divert approximately £500 million in gambling activity to the black market, while also reducing revenue through demand substitution and price pass-through. Furthermore, the debate surrounding affordability checks remains unresolved, with the BGC reiterating that more stringent checks could drive more consumers towards unregulated sites.